The Planes That Didn’t Come Back: A Mental Model for Smarter Focus and Better Decisions

Some stories don’t just teach you something new, they change the way you see everything. This is one of those stories.

I first came across it in Nassim Taleb’s Fooled by Randomness. Later, Jordan Ellenberg’s How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking drove the point home. It’s about World War II, mathematics, mental models and, oddly enough, productivity.

During the war, the Allies mapped bullet holes on planes that returned from missions. The instinct was simple: reinforce the areas most damaged. More armour. More steel. More money.

But mathematician Abraham Wald saw what others didn’t. “These are the planes that survived,” he said. The real danger lay in the places without bullet holes because those were the hits that caused the planes not to return.

That insight became known as survivorship bias. It’s not just about planes, it’s about everything we think we know.

What GTD Taught Me About “Invisible Work”

When I first trained in GTD, David Allen said something that stopped me cold:

It’s deceptively simple and profoundly powerful.

Most of us measure productivity by what’s visible: tasks completed, meetings attended, emails sent. But real effectiveness leaks through the invisible: the unclarified commitments, the postponed priorities, the deferred opportunities.

Like the planes, it’s often what we don’t see that does the most damage.

I had built systems, checklists, workflows, what some would call a “well-oiled machine.” Yet there were moments when everything looked perfect: inbox zero, meetings ticked off, deliverables submitted… but the goals that mattered most remained untouched.

Why? Because I was reinforcing the bullet holes I could see.

The Hidden Dimension: Negative Space Thinking & Inattentional Blindness

In design, artists use Negative Space Thinking, the art of noticing what’s not there. The blank space defines the form. The absence gives shape to meaning.

In cognitive psychology, Inattentional Blindness describes our tendency to miss what’s right in front of us because our attention is elsewhere. (Think of the famous “invisible gorilla” experiment.)

Together, these two ideas reveal a deeper truth: We don’t fail because we’re blind. We fail because we’re looking too closely or at the wrong thing.

That’s survivorship bias in action. We’re seduced by what’s visible, measurable, and celebrated… and we miss the quiet signals that really matter.

Taleb, Dobelli, and the Cemetery of Failures

Nassim Taleb warned about the “cemetery of failed strategies.” We copy successful entrepreneurs or influencers without seeing the thousands who tried the same path and failed.

Rolf Dobelli, in The Art of Thinking Clearly, calls this the fallacy of the survivors; we only see the winners because the losers are silent.

This blindness infects every domain:

• In business, we analyse success stories and ignore failed ventures that hold the real lessons.
• In leadership, we reward visible performers and overlook quiet disengagement.
• In productivity, we count what’s done and never question what’s missing.

Three Lessons from the Planes and the Gaps Between Them

1. Focus on What’s Missing, Not Just What’s Loud

In productivity, the visible often feels urgent, emails, calls, messages. The invisible (deep work, reflection, long-term strategy) quietly erodes under the surface.

Ask: What’s not on your to-do list that should be?

2. Watch for Survivorship Bias in Metrics

We love success stories, conversion rates, engagement, attendance. But we rarely track those who didn’t show up, didn’t buy, or quietly disengaged.

Ask: Where are my “missing planes”? What data am I not collecting?

3. Don’t Reinforce the Wrong Things

Leaders often invest in what’s visible, star performers, shiny projects, public praise. But true growth lies in the early-stage experiments, the burnt-out employees, the clients who went quiet.

Ask: Am I fortifying the visible damage or the hidden vulnerabilities?

From Reflection to Action

One of my clients, a brilliant entrepreneur in retail, once told me:

On paper, everything looked perfect: strong sales, busy people, healthy metrics. But underneath, customer loyalty was slipping and top talent was disengaged. He was reinforcing the bullet holes he could see, while the unseen cracks widened.

That’s where leadership, like design, demands Negative Space Thinking: See the silence. Study what’s missing. Ask what’s not happening but should.

A Practical Challenge for This Week

Take 10 minutes and list everything you’re not doing:

• Projects deferred
• Calls avoided
• Decisions postponed

Then ask: Are these my missing bullet holes?

Turning Reflection Into Strategy

At Sakeenah Group, we also help leaders and teams uncover the invisible work, the strategic blind spots that quietly erode performance.

Because true productivity isn’t about doing more. It’s about ensuring nothing mission-critical is left unarmoured.

So this week, pause and ask:

What am I not seeing… that could make all the difference?

The greatest risks are invisible. So are the greatest opportunities. Learn to see the negative space, because that’s where your next breakthrough may be hiding.